23 Nov 2022 Consumer Products Holiday Season Insights
Authored by RSM US LLP, November 23, 2022
The Return of the Shopper
The shift of the coronavirus crisis from a pandemic to an endemic state has brought with it the return of the holiday shopper and traveler.
Consumers continued to demonstrate a willingness to spend against inflation headwinds with holiday-focused retailer sales in October 2022 coming in at 6.45% year-over-year, the fourth highest October year-over-year change in the last 20 years, trailing behind 2021 at 12.68%, 2020 at 11.08% and 2005 at 6.62%. This is also in line with the RSM forecast for nominal total retail sales of 6.5% to 8.0% and sets up November to be the critical month for retail sales.
And while consumers are willing to spend during this time, they continue to use inflation-fighting tactics they deployed during the back-to-school season, like buying store-brand items and shopping more comparatively.
Consumers are also showing their willingness to gather this holiday season with October and November showing strong air passenger volumes of 2.2 million and 2.15 million total number of average daily passengers, respectively, according to the Transportation Security Administration.
Restaurant Industry
The return of the holiday traveler is a boon for the restaurant industry, highlighted by only the second positive monthly increase in seated diners according to OpenTable; however, restaurants have continued to face labor shortages to meet the returning demand. Consumers seeking out spending on services this holiday season may have to temper expectations.
The takeaway
The results from Black Friday this year will be telling because it is the culmination of various factors coming together over multiple years. As for consumers, they are seeking to navigate balancing returning to in-person gatherings this holiday season, while also facing continued inflationary pressures that have cut into their built-up savings. For the retailers that have been dealing with elevated inventory levels, shortages in labor and increased margin pressure, they are relying on this holiday season to perhaps help hit the reset button for them before next year.
Look for additional insights as we continue our consumer products holiday season insights series.
DO YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR WANT TO TALK?
Fill out the form below and we’ll contact you to discuss your specific situation.
This article was written by Seth Bacon and originally appeared on 2022-11-23.
2022 RSM US LLP. All rights reserved.
https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/consumer-products-holiday-season-insights-the-return-of-the-shopper/
RSM US Alliance provides its members with access to resources of RSM US LLP. RSM US Alliance member firms are separate and independent businesses and legal entities that are responsible for their own acts and omissions, and each are separate and independent from RSM US LLP. RSM US LLP is the U.S. member firm of RSM International, a global network of independent audit, tax, and consulting firms. Members of RSM US Alliance have access to RSM International resources through RSM US LLP but are not member firms of RSM International. Visit rsmus.com/aboutus for more information regarding RSM US LLP and RSM International. The RSM(tm) brandmark is used under license by RSM US LLP. RSM US Alliance products and services are proprietary to RSM US LLP.
Haynie & Company is a proud member of RSM US Alliance, a premier affiliation of independent accounting and consulting firms in the United States. RSM US Alliance provides our firm with access to resources of RSM US LLP, the leading provider of audit, tax and consulting services focused on the middle market. RSM US LLP is a licensed CPA firm and the U.S. member of RSM International, a global network of independent audit, tax and consulting firms with more than 43,000 people in over 120 countries.
Our membership in RSM US Alliance has elevated our capabilities in the marketplace, helping to differentiate our firm from the competition while allowing us to maintain our independence and entrepreneurial culture. We have access to a valuable peer network of like-sized firms as well as a broad range of tools, expertise, and technical resources.